WILL CANADA HAVE ENOUGH OATS TO COVER MILLERS' NEEDS?
The Canadian oat situation will prove challenging for both buyers and sellers for the 2021-22 crop year, at a time when demand is growing.
The 2020-21 crop year saw Canadian crop year supplies of 5.018 million metric tons (mmt) (325.4 mb), the largest supplies in 12 years. This allowed for record exports of 2.928 mmt (oats plus oat products) (189.9 mb), in addition to domestic use of 1.431 mmt (92.8 mb). Official data shows 1.5 mmt (97.3 mb) was shipped to the U.S, down from the previous year, while the next largest buyer was Chile at 201,500 mt (13.1 mb). Despite this disappearance, Statistics Canada's ending stocks estimate of 658,500 metric tons (mt) (42.7 mb) was up from the previous year and slightly higher than the five-year average.
Even though the demand and processing capacity for oats is growing, seeded acres fell by 11% to 3.423 million acres in 2021, the first drop in acres in three years. Price signals failed to support acres when compared to more profitable crop choices this spring.
The Prairie drought took a further toll. Canada's average yield has been estimated at 60 bpa, down 34.3% from the previous year and 38.8% below the 20-year trend. Estimated production of 2.5787 mmt (167.2 mb) is down 2 mmt or 43.6% from 2020. This is the third-lowest production seen in official estimates going back to 1908.
Crop-year supplies are estimated at 3.252 mmt (210.9 mb), down 35.2%, while 2021-22 exports are forecast at 1.8 mmt (116.7 mb) (oats plus products) for the world's largest exporter of oats, down 39% from the previous year and would be the smallest exports since 2004-05. July 31, 2022, stocks could be the tightest on record. It is interesting to note that exports are off to a quick start early in the crop year, with licensed exports reported at 262,900 mt as of week 8 or the week ended Sept. 26, down only 10.9% from the same period in 2020-21. There is an additional 318,700 mt reported in commercial storage for this week, down 24% from one year ago while 29% higher than the five-year average for the week.
Two other factors may further tighten estimated supplies and Canada's export potential. The first is quality issues, with the season's conditions leading to lightweight oats in some areas, which bears watching in future Grain Commission analysis.
The second is in the unharvested acres estimate, which will not be clarified until the next Statistics Canada report in December. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada commentary points to a higher abandonment rate due to drought conditions and as producers cut crops for feed. At the same time, current Statistics Canada estimates show 2.787 million acres of the 3.423 million acres seeded was harvested in 2021, or 81.4% of seeded acres, which is higher than the five-year average of 80.5% and a higher percentage than four of the past five years.
Interest in oats for 2022 is certain to grow and the hunt for seed supplies will also be a factor in the months ahead. Current milling oat bids are seen as high as $7.00/bushel CAD in Manitoba ($5.54 USD), while Manitoba government data shows producer bids up 119% from one year ago. Saskatchewan and Alberta bids are reported closer to $6/bu.
One thing oats knows for sure is the job of the market in the crop year ahead will be to ration tight supplies.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com
Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson
"oat" - Google News
October 04, 2021 at 10:57PM
https://ift.tt/3mFZS9t
What Do Oats Really Know? - DTN The Progressive Farmer
"oat" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2VUZxDm
https://ift.tt/3aVzfVV
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "What Do Oats Really Know? - DTN The Progressive Farmer"
Post a Comment