Of course, there are a lot of moving parts in this forecast and these estimates may represent a perfect world. Foodbusinessnews.net reports on a presentation by Canadian oat analyst Randy Strychar to the North American Miller's Association spring conference in Florida this month, who notes there is no cushion in terms of global stocks as we move into the 2024-25 crop year.
Strychar stated, "We're at a tipping point . . . We have very little wiggle room right now. There's no supply carryover. Last year we came in with one of the highest ending stocks we've ever seen, 1.2 million tons and we've managed to chew through that much faster than I think most of us anticipated the market would consume that."
Forces of supply and demand will be watched closely this season. AAFC's average yield estimate of 90 bushels per acre (bpa) is up from 84.1 bpa in 2023 and also above the five-year average of 86.2 bpa. The 20-year trend would indicate a yield of 91.9 bpa in 2024.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.
Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CliffJamieson.
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March 21, 2024 at 02:44PM
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2024 Oat Forecast Leaves Market on Edge - DTN The Progressive Farmer
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