Also not shown, the most recent CFTC data as of Nov. 24 shows noncommercial traders increasing their bullish net-long position in oat futures, during a week when the same group reduced their net-long positions for hard red spring wheat, soft red winter wheat, hard red winter wheat, corn, soybeans and canola.
Based on the USDA's November estimates, U.S. production is higher than the five-year average, while ending stocks were forecast as the highest in three years. In order to achieve this, imports are forecast at 94 million bushels in 2020-21 (1.450 million metric tons), which is up slightly from 2019-20 and the highest volume imported in six years.
Meanwhile, the International Grains Council posted a chart of global oat consumption, with the forecast for 2020-21 appearing to be the highest in four years with a reported uptick in global demand for both feed oats and human consumption oats.
The recent move is also despite Statistics Canada revising higher their oat production forecast from earlier forecasts to 4.576 mmt, the highest estimated production in 13 years, up 8.2% from 2019 and 26.7% higher than the five-year average. Prior to this report, AAFC was forecasting Canadian stocks to increase by 174,000 metric tons year over year, while Statistics Canada has since increased their production estimate by 73,100 metric tons.
The oat data bears watching in the December USDA data release.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com
Follow him on Twitter @CliffJamieson
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December 09, 2020 at 05:42PM
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March Oats Reach Fresh Contract High - DTN The Progressive Farmer
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